An Era of Oil Scracity (IMF)

The recent spike in oil prices suggested that the global oil market had entered a period of increased scarcity, while global capital flows to emerging markets surged after the crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday.

"The origins of this scarcity can be traced to the tension between the upward shift in global oil consumption growth due to fast-growing emerging market economies and supply constraints, which have led to a downshift in oil supply growth," the IMF noted in a report.

Egypt & the prices

The political turmoil in Egypt has helped push oil prices up to around $100 per barrel. As Matthew Hulbert writes, it is clear that geopolitics is once again a driving factor in the oil market. He advises us to buckle up — as the ride is about to get bumpy.

US-Saudi Tensions

There has been a lot of chatter recently in foreign policy circles about Saudi Arabia’s internal response to the Arab Spring and its recent intervention in the Shiite majority protests in neighboring Bahrain. Themes woven throughout these musings include greater Saudi-Iran tensions, an increase in Saudi paranoia vis-à-vis the Iran threat, greater stress on the US-Saudi special relationship, and the notion that liberal political reforms are inevitable in the kingdom despite the staunch resistance of the Saudi establishment.

Foreign Policy’s recent article “Outraged in Riyadh,” touches upon the many recent strains on the US-Saudi alliance. Among Saudi gripes are the US’ lack of support for Egyptian dictator, Hosni Mubarak, and US/NATO flailing intervention in Libya to oust Gaddaffi. Despite the US’ hands-off attitude toward Bahrain, Saudi Arabia decreased oil production last month, despite its assurances to make up for Libya going offline. It seems like the long-time pals may be in for a rough 2011.

The impact of oil decrease on human settlements

© Balfour & Associates 2003/2004

In the same kind of source, I will post in the next week an analysis of the 1972 Meadows & Al. report commissioned by the Club de Rome to Meadows's MIT research team.

The Persian-Arabic Cold War

For three months, the Arab world has been awash in protests and demonstrations. It's being called an Arab Spring, harking back to the Prague Spring of 1968.

But comparison to the short-lived flowering of protests 40 years ago in Czechoslovakia is turning out to be apt in another way. For all the attention the Mideast protests have received, their most notable impact on the region thus far hasn't been an upswell of democracy. It has been a dramatic spike in tensions between two geopolitical titans, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The Fracture of Libya's NOC?

The recent fighting between rebels in Eastern Libya and the government of Muammar al-Gaddafi has resulted in a fracturing of the National Oil Corporation (NOC). Though later posts will delve into greater detail of the history and structure of the NOC, its subsidiaries and the relationship to the Oil Ministry, this post will focus on recent events.