EIA Country Briefs for Yemen, Syria, Bahrain, Libya

Notes from EIA Country Briefs

Yemen

Geostrategic significance: Located on the Bab al-Mandab shipping lane (3.2 mb/d); closure or blockage could result in disruptions of Persian Gulf/Gulf of Aden to Suez/Sumed pipelines.

Hydrocarbon sector:

· 30% GDP

· 75% government revenues

· 3 billion barrels proven oil reserves (2011)

Oil Production:

· 2009: 286k bbl/d

· 2010: 260k bbl/d

· 2011/2010: 250k bbl/d (est.)

· Net exporter, 125,500 bbl/d (2009); domestic consumption rising

· Refining capacity: 140,00 bbl/d (2011)

o Chinese investment in modernization of refining facilities

Key players:

· General Corporation for Oil, Gas and Mineral Reserves

· Yemen Oil Company

· Safer Exploration and Production Operating Company (SEPOC)

o Leading national oil company (est. 2005)

General trends, observations:

· Oil revenues declining; foreign investment to energy sector needed

· Recent swing toward natural gas for domestic consumption and export

· Foreign contracts require parliamentary approval

o Licenses of Hunt Oil and ExxonMobil not renewed via parliamentary veto (2005)

o SEPOC can take over international companies’ assets upon licenses expiration (2010)

Syria

Link in Arab Gas Pipeline (Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon); potential increased transit revenues

Hydrocarbon sector:

2.5 billion barrels proven oil reserves (2010)

Oil Production:

· 2008: 390k bbl/d

· 2009: 368k bbl/d

· Exports: 148k bbl/d (2009)

o Exports mainly to Europe (Germany, Italy, France)

· Refining capacity: 240,00 bbl/d (2011)

Key players:

· Syrian Petroleum Company

o Increased exploration to combat production decline

o Increased production partnerships with foreign companies (50% share)

General trends, observations:

· Foreign investment to energy sector needed

· Recent move toward natural gas for domestic consumption-> natural gas importer

Bahrain

Hydrocarbon sector:

· 70% government revenues

· 60% of exports (exports = refined petroleum, not crude)

· 125 million barrels proven oil reserves (2011)- all from Awali field

o 2011 drilling new wells to combat production decline

o Refining capacity: 262k bbl/d

o Extra refining capacity-> imports 210k bbl/d from Saudi Arabia to refine and export

· Increased domestic consumption

· Decreased exports

o 2005: 27k bbl/d

o 2009: 3k bbl/d

Oil Production:

2010: 46k bbl/d total oil liquids (35k bbl/d crude oil)

Key players:

Bahrain Petroleum Company (Bapco, state-owned)- production, distribution, etc.

Libya

Hydrocarbon sector:

· 95% of export earnings (2010)

· 46.4 billion barrels proven oil reserves, Africa’s largest

· Member of OPEC

Oil Production:

· 2000: 1.43 million bbl/d

· 2010: 1.8 million bbl/d production capacity; 1.65 million bbl/d actual production (2010) due to OPEC quotas

· 1960s Peak: 3+ million bbl/d

· Refining capacity: 378k bbl/d

o Seeks upgrade in deteriorating refining facilities

· Domestic Consumption: 270k bbl/d (2010)

· Net exports (all liquids): 1.5 million bbl/d (2010)

o Exports mainly to Europe (Italy, Germany, France, Spain)

Key players:

· National Oil Company

o Since 2005, changes in production-sharing agreements restrict IOC’s output and require “fresh investment” for license renewal.

o Increased IOC investment in exploration has slowed

General trends, observations:

· Natural gas production increased in recent years.

· UN/US lifted sanctions on Libya in 2003/2004

· US designation as state sponsor of terrorism lifted in 2006

o US imports from Libya: 71k bbl/d (2010)

EIA Country Briefs for Algeria, Egypt, and Sudan

Notes from EIA Country Briefs Algeria -Member of OPEC -Economy is heavily reliant on hydrocarbon sector -6th largest global exporter of LNG (2nd largest in OPEC) (exports 70% of its supply, ore 1.9 million barrels) -¼ of its exports goes to the US -14th highest global oil producer, 4th largest in Africa -Has 12.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, produces 2,229 thousand bbl/d (Jan 09) -Nationalized oil and gas (Sonatrach), but allows FDI (but Sonatrach has at least 51% share of every contract) -Maintaining and developing new fields: goal to continue current production levels -2009: refining capacity of 450,000 bbl/d Egypt -Proven oil reserves at 4.4 billion barrels (Jan, 2011) -Production has declined from 1996 peak of 935,000bbl/d to current 660,000 bbl/d. Offsetting this by developing its natural gas sector (expected to be the country’s driver of growth) -A net importer, but exported 145,000 bbl/d crude oil in 2010. -Government planning to slowly lift subsidized prices and target subsidies more effectively to reduce domestic demand -Suez Canal (plans for expansion as cannot accommodate larger tankers) and Sumed Pipeline (capacity of 2.3 million bbl/d, joint ownership by Egypt, Kuwaiti, and Abu Dhabi, and Saudi Arabian companies) Fees collected are a significant source of government income) -Largest oil refining capabilities in Africa: imports, refines, and exports non-Egyptian crudes -Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) state entity in charge of infrastructure, licensing, and production. -Energy sector divided into three companies. Tunisia (no analysis available) -Produces 86,000 bbl/day of oil -Produces 105,000 bcf of natural gas Sudan -Most of its oil is produced in the south but its pipeline, refining, and export infrastructure is located in the north. The Abyei region, on the north/south border, is a significant oil producing area. It was given special autonomy in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), and has not yet voted in the 2011 referendum for Southern independence. Oil sharing negotiations have begun, but violent clashes in the region may derail them. -Oil exports are 90% of total export revenues. For South Sudan it represents 98% of total revenues and 56% for Northern Sudan. -Natural gas has been discovered, but have not yet been confirmed as commercially viable -Conflicts and (US)sanctions prevent further development -Total oil production is 480,790 bbl/d -Foreign investments from China, India, and Malaysia compliment low domestic investment in development. Practically all of Sudan’s oil exports go to Asia.