By Cecilia Mussi Rodriguez @ Lund University
http://biblioteket.ehl.lu.se/olle/papers/0002223.pdf
27.4.11
The Economics of an Integrated World Oil Market
By William Nordhaus / Yale University / Keynote Address @ International Energy Workshop in Venice, Italy June 17-19, 2009
http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/documents/iew_052909.pdf
http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/documents/iew_052909.pdf
An Era of Oil Scracity (IMF)
The recent spike in oil prices suggested that the global oil market had entered a period of increased scarcity, while global capital flows to emerging markets surged after the crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday.
"The origins of this scarcity can be traced to the tension between the upward shift in global oil consumption growth due to fast-growing emerging market economies and supply constraints, which have led to a downshift in oil supply growth," the IMF noted in a report.
EIA STEO - April 2011
The forecast for total world oil consumption grows by an annual average of 1.5 million bbl/d in 2011 and 2012. Supply from non-OPEC countries grows an average of about 0.4 million bbl/d annually through 2012. Consequently, EIA expects that in order to meet projected demand growth the market will rely on both a drawdown of inventories and significant increases in the production of crude oil and non-crude liquids in OPEC member countries at a time when the disruption of crude oil exports from Libya and continuing unrest in other MENA countries already highlight significant supply risks.
Among the major uncertainties that could push oil prices above or below our current forecast are: the continued unrest in producing countries and its potential impact on supply; decisions by key OPEC member countries regarding their production response to the global increase in oil demand; the rate of economic growth, both domestically and globally; fiscal issues facing national and sub-national governments; and China's efforts to address concerns regarding its growth and inflation rates.
Optimal oil production levels for KSA
By Ayed Al-Qahtani (Colorado School of Mines PhD candidate)
http://www.iaee.org/en/students/best_papers/Al-Qahtani.pdf
http://www.iaee.org/en/students/best_papers/Al-Qahtani.pdf
Egypt & the prices
| The political turmoil in Egypt has helped push oil prices up to around $100 per barrel. As Matthew Hulbert writes, it is clear that geopolitics is once again a driving factor in the oil market. He advises us to buckle up — as the ride is about to get bumpy. |
World oil: market or mayhem?
By James Smith / Journal of Economic Perspectives / Summer 2009
http://web.mit.edu/ceepr/www/publications/reprints/Reprint_214_WC.pdf
http://web.mit.edu/ceepr/www/publications/reprints/Reprint_214_WC.pdf
Iran sees the global market as oversupplied
Iran sees the global oil market as oversupplied, despite prices that have been pushed up by upheaval in the Middle East, its OPEC governor was quoted as saying in a newspaper published on Saturday.
“Not only is there not a shortage of supply in the oil market but there is 1 million barrels (per day) of excess supply,” Mohammad Ali Khatibi told Sharq daily in an interview.
He also warned that prices would continue to increase if the Libyan crisis persists.
© Reuters / 04-10-2011
Effects of Regional Instability on Algeria's Oil
Algeria's military is on high alert over possible threats to the country's oil fields in the south. Concern stems from the government's failure to stop the illegal weapons trade, and as a result even explosives and rockets are in circulation. The military is responding by increasing the security along Algeria and Libya's 900 km long border.
There are also concerns over security in the Sahal region (Algeria, Mauritania, Mali, Niger) as a whole, since an al-Qaida affiliate is active there. The governments of the region are responding to this threat by establishing a joint military headquarters in the Sahal.
Algeria's state oil company Sonatrach, may believe the region is stabailizing, as it has lowered its official price for Saharan Blend crdue for May to $1.70 a barrel. This is a sharp decrease from its high $2.85 price in April ($1.35 in March) during the NATO air strikes over Libya.
There are also concerns over security in the Sahal region (Algeria, Mauritania, Mali, Niger) as a whole, since an al-Qaida affiliate is active there. The governments of the region are responding to this threat by establishing a joint military headquarters in the Sahal.
Algeria's state oil company Sonatrach, may believe the region is stabailizing, as it has lowered its official price for Saharan Blend crdue for May to $1.70 a barrel. This is a sharp decrease from its high $2.85 price in April ($1.35 in March) during the NATO air strikes over Libya.
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