Reform in the Middle East Oil Monarchies: An Outline

Reform in the Middle East Oil Monarchies

Edited by Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Steven Wright

Ithaca Press (2007)

Reform in the Middle East Oil Monarchies focuses on recent trends in the region, arguing that they represent liberalization rather than real movement toward democracy. Many of these changes are seeming cosmetic, rather than representative of a real diffusion of political power. The following posts will closely outline essays contained in the volume that are useful for understanding these trends in Saudi Arabia.

“Political Reform in the Gulf Monarchies: From Liberalization to Democratization” by Gerd Nonneman, in Reform in the Middle East Oil Monarchies Eds. Ehteshami and Wright

·      Political/economic system based on rents

·      Liberalization and democratization are not synonymous

·      Creation of state structures in 20^th century; consolidation of position of ruling families through foreign protection/oil revenues, demographic/social/economic effects of oil wealth, expansion/increasing complexity of society= neo-traditionalist systems

o   Elements of “tradition” have been reinterpreted by the regime and parts of populations even though context has radically changed

·      Gulf Cooperation Council 2000-2007 political reform seemingly possible, not as “uniformly” and “unchangingly autocratic” as previously perceived

Political Participation in GCC States in the 20^th Century

·      Rentier states: no need for taxation, autonomy from society---population fine with it as long as the government doesn’t challenge key values—1970s to mid 1980s

o   Evolution of oil prices and markers, globalization of world economy, population explosion, social change AND 1990s pressure for political reform = Vast societal change

·      Ne-traditionalist strategy- to use traditional channels to solve grievances, even if they are reinvented for the times.

·      Traditional tribal corporatism; preferred co-optation

The Reforms So Far

Historical Elections:

·      Hijaz, Abdul-Aziz Al Sa'ud established elected majlis for the region and in 5 main towns

·      1950s local elections under King Sa’ud; discontinued under King Faisal

Post 1990-1991 Gulf War:

·      Basic Law 1992; introduction of the appointed Majlis al-Shura (1993)

·      -Majlis becoming increasingly more powerful, especially after establishment of specialized committees in 2001

Municipal elections 2005

·      2005, new Majlis expanded to 150; purported to be allowed to analyze budget, may be 2/3 elected in the future; judicial reform announced

·      Municipal elections for approx. 6 of 12k seats of the 178 municipal councils; rest of the seats were appointed

o   Councils don’t address political issues, just local services and planning; no political parties/women

o   Low voter registration, high turnout of registered, competition for elected seats, moderate Islamists victory in many regions; sectarian results in East; presences of group politics; localized focus of politics.

“National Dialogue”- Crown Prince Abdallah, 6^th session in 2006- even though limited and may/may not influence policy = important symbolic change; inclusion of Shia religious actors in discussion.

Key Factors Relevant to Liberalization in the GCC States

Socio-economic development, the middle class and civil society

Oil wealth-induced change = increased hold of state through rentier dynamics

·      However, mid-1980s-early 200s = downturn in demand/resources balance

·      Gradual build-up of resources= greater autonomy for society

·      Emergence of bourgeoisie = +500k people; not so dependent on state; own wealth creation through investment and commercial ventures.

Relationship with the West: political pressure of US and EU

“The external factor can either facilitate or obstruct political liberalization, not determine outcomes on its own.”

1.     Has less leverage than in poorer states

2.     Blatant pressure (esp. from US) can be challenges locally

3.     Globalization, WTO, etc. = greater desire for inclusion in economic/political decisions

Regional environment = important

·      Can affect elite’s perceptions; influence popular aspirations/perceptions

Limits to Reform

Saudi royal family still holds all the real power.

·      Brumberg: “reform is simply the production of ‘liberalized autocracy’”; securing autocratic systems in different garb (more social/political pluralism, but power stays in hands of powerful).

o   “Segmented clientelism” in Saudi

o   Liberalization as means to co-opt, divide and conquer the opposition

Hope for the Majlis:

Majlis al-Shura and taxation:

·      No taxation without budgetary transparency and inclusive decision-making

Conclusion

Gulf oil monarchies are being pressured domestically and externally for reform; however, resources/legitimacy so abundant that complete, immediate reform is unlikely.